Investment Insights

 

Navigating Japan Equities: Monthly Insights From Tokyo (June 2025)

We discuss how growing calls to reduce Japan's consumption tax rate provide a chance to focus on how consumption can be stimulated, potentially triggering a secular change in spending behaviour; we also assess the recent surge in super-long JGB yields and its possible implications for monetary and fiscal policy.
In this month's Balancing Act we review Q1 corporate earnings, which have been more resilient than expected; from a defensive standpoint we also discuss our cautious view on gold.
Against a more challenging but still benign macroeconomic backdrop, we expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be affected by tariff threats or geopolitical dynamics.

Trump’s first 100 days: a new economic regime takes shape

With a new economic regime potentially taking shape, we believe that now is an opportune time to consider an active global fixed income approach to navigate what is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty.
We can expect more aggressive policy support from Chinese authorities over the next several months for consumption and business activities, prompted by the still uncertain global trade situation. Despite the ongoing volatility and uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff policies, there are encouraging signs that the situation may improve.

We are all Bayesians now: why the US bond market is pivotal

Moody's downgrade of the US offers a chance to assess the relationship between the US administration and the bond market and examine the implications of persistent budget deficits, market reactions, trade tensions and policy decisions.

Global Equity Quarterly (Q1 2025)

We firmly believe that markets remain inefficient, and the last few months are testament to that. Hence we face today's uncertainty level headed, attentive to where risks lie while also inquisitive about the potential opportunities.
Speculation over the actions of the US administration had a major impact on asset markets throughout the January-March quarter, with volatility dominating towards the end. We trimmed our overweight score in growth assets during the quarter, while we kept our view of defensive assets marginally positive.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (April 2025)

The upcoming New Zealand earnings reporting season is set against a backdrop of intricate global economic factors and trade tensions. Amidst the uncertainty, we assess New Zealand's exposure to the global trade tumult, highlighting potential challenges and supportive factors for the country's economy and companies.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (April 2025)

In our view, New Zealand’s status as a safe haven during times of turbulence has often exceeded that of other markets. Although the New Zealand market is relatively small, it also offers a high degree of quality, and the country's bond and asset prices rarely see as much volatility as in the rest of the world.