Investment Insights

The Japanese equity market rose in November, with the TOPIX (w/dividends) climbing 1.30% on-month and the Nikkei 225 (w/dividends) rising 1.98%. Equities rose in the early part of the month on strong US economic indicators and easing political uncertainty after the US midterm election results largely matched expectations.

As we wrap up the final weeks of 2018 and look ahead to whatever challenges lay ahead next year, we can’t help but reflect on what has been a testing and frustrating year for investors.

US Treasuries (USTs) registered gains in November, while yields fell along with faltering US equities.

While it is true that the Fed will be criticized no matter what it does tomorrow, it could limit criticism to mild levels if it hikes only 10 bps.

John Vail, Chief Global Strategist for Nikko Asset Management, contributes a regular column to Forbes.com

Today’s release of the 3Q CY18 data on aggregate Japanese corporate profits showed interesting trends regarding our long-term theme about improving corporate governance.

John Vail, Chief Global Strategist for Nikko Asset Management, contributes a regular column to Forbes.com

The macroeconomic backdrop for Asian countries should remain broadly neutral for credit performance in 2019. GDP growth is expected to moderate across the key economies, although we don’t expect any hard landing scenarios to materialize.

One thing is for sure, 2019 will not be a dull year. We expect more headlines and drama on trade but would pay more attention to underlying policy direction at both the Federal Reserve and Chinese authorities, as bigger markers for improved fortunes across Asian markets.

Shakespeare once said, “present fears are less than horrible imaginings.” As we come to the close of 2018, we have observed equity markets turn double-digit returns to losses, an aggressive rise in interest rates and a modest increase on the perception of escalating tensions surrounding the world’s two largest economies.

In addition, we have to consider the eventuality of a prolonged trade war. But China would be able to mitigate its impact initially via a combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus, helping offset the impact of tariffs to a certain extent.

Credit markets didn’t perform in line with the expectations we set at the beginning of the year and disappointed most investors.