SHARE THIS “Stagflation-lite” coupled with a severe geopolitical crisis was much worse for equities than we expected, but most of the bad news is priced in, so the prospect for global economies and equities in aggregate should improve. While we expect...
SHARE THIS As New Zealand grapples with inflation and the spectre of a recession, we highlight the impact increasing mortgage rates may have on consumer spending. This is an important theme as it ties in with how we need to consider absolute interest...
SHARE THIS The world is fast entering the adjustment phase as deglobalisation is accelerating, requiring new solutions and investment to clear new imbalances from energy supply to labour and eventually normalise inflation.
SHARE THIS Rising interest rates and inflation woes continued to weigh on regional and global markets. US consumer prices registered above expectations with the August consumer price index (CPI) jumping 8.3% year-on-year (YoY). The tight labour market...
SHARE THIS Yields have moved significantly this year, challenging the assumption that the relationship between a bond’s price and yield is linear. We discuss convexity, which measures how sensitive a bond’s duration is to yield changes, and its...
SHARE THIS No single catch-phrase epitomises the 2023 global macro outlook, but here are ten predictions for the year ahead.
SHARE THIS On balance, we are constructive mainly for valuation support and growth prospects improving for China with a firm tailwind from an easing dollar. Pockets of the US equity market may struggle on weaker earnings, but the rest of the world...
SHARE THIS We believe that the rewards will outweigh the risks related to China amid an existence of enough cyclical, thematic and structural trends that could enable the country to outperform in 2023; particular focus will be on the government’s...
SHARE THIS We present our 2023 outlook for core markets, emerging markets and global credit.
SHARE THIS Asian stocks rebounded strongly in November after Federal Reserve Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to slower pace of monetary policy tightening and lifted market sentiment. All Asian markets ended in positive territory, with China in the lead...
SHARE THIS While we do not expect the US Federal Reserve to pivot any time soon towards easing policy, the firm break in dollar momentum perhaps reflects a shift in the relative growth story which had favoured the US towards one focused on the rest of...
SHARE THIS Chinese shares outperformed in December as the country continued to move away from its zero-COVID policy while markets in Taiwan and South Korea slumped amid concerns towards the global economy. In ASEAN, Thailand led the region as the...
SHARE THIS Asian equities made a strong start to 2023, with the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index returning 8.2% in US dollar (USD) terms in January, supported by a rebound in investor sentiment towards China.
SHARE THIS The official GDP growth target of “around 5%” unveiled at China’s annual National People’s Congress was lower than many external forecasts, and fiscal policy looks less accommodative relative to both market expectations and that of 2022. In...
SHARE THIS Asian local currency bonds are expected to thrive as the region’s central banks end their rate hike cycle on the back of easing inflation. We believe that strong fundamentals, high-quality yields and limited foreign ownership are other...
SHARE THIS This month we discuss how potential market volatility still bears watching even if the global banking turmoil may not directly shake Japan; we also assess how a steady domestic demand recovery may be in sight even if the public is slow to...
SHARE THIS Financials, healthcare and energy buck the trend and rise in a down market.
SHARE THIS China’s re-opening and supportive policy tone may continue to provide a critical counterweight to global macro weakness. Macro and corporate credit fundamentals across Asia ex-China are also expected to stay robust.
SHARE THIS As the green bond market diversifies, sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs), which are linked to an issuer’s broader sustainability performance, have garnered significant investor attention and scrutiny. We believe structural improvements will...
SHARE THIS We expect occasionally quite volatile, but positive trends for the global economy, financial system and markets in each of the next four quarters. Regionally, we prefer the European market for the next two quarters, and also include Japan’s...
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