SHARE THIS Between still high levels of inflation, fast-tightening central banks, a growing energy crisis in Europe and slow growth in China, it is easy to imagine a bleak growth outlook. But these difficult dynamics also harbour opportunities often...
SHARE THIS In what was probably the best kept secret of many years, the BOJ unanimously agreed to shift its YCC policy well before virtually any economist or market watcher expected. The largest question people seem to have is “why now?”. As with most...
SHARE THIS Currently, there is a wide variety of predictions for the BOJ’s actions, with some expecting imminent hawkish decisions based upon some of Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda’s “anti-distortion” comments, but changes are more likely to be gradual...
SHARE THIS We expect fairly rough sailing for the global economy, financial system and markets in the next two quarters, but we do not expect disasters and there should be major relief for stocks later in 2023 as central banks begin to ease policy.
SHARE THIS We remain constructive on relatively higher-yielding Philippine, Indian and Indonesian government bonds, on the back of the relatively supportive macro backdrop for these countries. As for currencies, we expect the Thai baht and Indonesian...
SHARE THIS We retain our preference for Indonesian government bonds and for currencies, we believe that greater support for the renminbi from Chinese policymakers should remove a near-term headwind for currencies in the region. We take a more cautious...
SHARE THIS We expect sentiment toward Asia’s bond markets to turn increasingly positive in 2024. We also expect macro and corporate credit fundamentals across Asia ex-China to stay resilient on the back of fiscal buffers, although slower economic...
SHARE THIS We expect poor 1Q24 returns for MSCI World after the 4Q23 surge, but a more positive trend for the rest of 2024. Regionally, we much prefer Japan in the year ahead. Our view on global bonds for USD-based investors is that they are preferred...
SHARE THIS We think that there could be some short-term rebound in China as valuations are in extreme oversold territory. However, for the rally to be more sustainable, we are monitoring for a few drivers, including supply-side measures that can...
SHARE THIS The Chinese economy and its equity market continue to be significant focal points in broader Asia. Additional support measures, combined with a recalibration of market expectations, have helped Chinese equities recover from the panic selling...
SHARE THIS The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle has created room for monetary easing across Asia. We expect Asian government bond yields, particularly high yielders like those of India, Indonesia and the Philippines, to trend lower.
SHARE THIS We expect Asian local government bonds to perform well in 2025, supported by accommodative central banks amid an environment of benign inflation and moderating growth. The ongoing global easing cycle is expected to lower global yields,...
SHARE THIS The future of US policy is surrounded by great uncertainty, particularly regarding tariff measures that the US may impose upon its trading partners. We explore options that are available to Japan to safeguard against tariffs the US may...
SHARE THIS In January, the Bank of Japan raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level seen in 17 years, as it continued with its slow but steady withdrawal of accommodation. As the Japanese economy shows ongoing signals of recovery from...
SHARE THIS Against this more challenging but still benign macroeconomic backdrop, we expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be affected by tariff threats or...
SHARE THIS Amid the challenges facing China's property market, work is well under way to restore confidence in the housing sector. It remains an uphill task for both Beijing and the country's property groups, but there are signs of renewed investor...
SHARE THIS The Global Investment Committee (GIC) held an extraordinary session to review the macroeconomic and market impact of tariffs announced by the US on 2 April, as well as subsequent actions and market reactions. The GIC’s verdict is that while...
SHARE THIS We firmly believe that markets remain inefficient, and the last few months are testament to that. Hence we face today's uncertainty level headed, attentive to where risks lie while also inquisitive about the potential opportunities.
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