SHARE THIS As is often the case, markets are a better reflection of general sentiment than news headlines and so far, it points to an ongoing global recovery as equities hold their gains of 2021 and long-term bond yields rise. It may not be time yet to...
SHARE THIS Yields have moved significantly this year, challenging the assumption that the relationship between a bond’s price and yield is linear. We discuss convexity, which measures how sensitive a bond’s duration is to yield changes, and its...
SHARE THIS We don’t expect smooth sailing for the global economy and markets, but there should be great relief for both stocks and bonds in 2023, with pockets of strong outperformance due to idiosyncratic advantages. Notably, Europe and Developed...
SHARE THIS We visited Vietnam in February and found that business and economic prospects have turned around completely for the better from a year ago. Interest rates have normalised, and mortgage terms are the most favourable that we have ever seen in...
SHARE THIS We favour South Korean, Indian and Philippine government bonds and have adopted a neutral stance on Indonesian bonds. Meanwhile, the fundamentals backdrop for Asian credit remains supportive.
SHARE THIS The last few quarters have been a good reminder that we are in a changing world. As a result, we need to focus always on investing in enduring franchises and we would suggest that our Future Quality approach is soundly placed in that regard....
SHARE THIS Inflation is on everyone’s mind. From central bankers to bakers, it is one of the biggest topics of discussion. The prices of many commodities are rising sharply. The reasons vary. Supply constraints, sharp rise in demand or bad weather—take...
SHARE THIS We present our Q3 2022 outlook for the Global Unconstrained Bond Strategy which incorporates our core markets, emerging markets and global credit views.
SHARE THIS As geopolitical risks and globalisation are reassessed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Europe, we believe that Japan stands to benefit as more companies refocus on their home markets.
SHARE THIS We expect fundamentals and technical backdrop for Asian credit to remain supportive in 2024. However, valuation is a challenge with current Asian high-grade spreads near historical lows. The myriad cyclical and structural factors driving the...
SHARE THIS We perceive heightened risk to both growth (two-way) and inflation (upside) compared to our previous guidance. Nevertheless, our central near-term scenario remains for slowing but positive growth in the US, alongside slowly moderating prices.
SHARE THIS As European Commission President Ursla von der Leyen announced the free trade agreement with the UK and the EU, she quoted T.S. Eliot: “What we call the beginning is often the end. And to make an end is to make a beginning. The end is where...
SHARE THIS We review the “new form of capitalism”, a government plan to boost economic growth initiated by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is enjoying a high public approval rating ahead of a closely watched upper house election.
SHARE THIS We have shifted to a mildly positive stance on overall duration, preferring high-yield markets such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. We expect Asia credit to remain well-supported due to subdued net new supply as issuers continue to...
SHARE THIS It does not seem that there are enough differences between Abenomics and the proposed economic policies of likely new Prime Minister Suga to justify the completely new portmanteau “Suganomics,” as a few analysts have suggested.
SHARE THIS We believe that the Official Cash Rate’s projected path to the 3% level, which we consider likely to be the lowest point of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s current easing cycle, may be more noteworthy than the interest rate cut in February.
SHARE THIS The US Treasury (UST) yield curve flattened in June, with short-dated bonds underperforming. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pivot caused the UST curve to flatten aggressively mid-month.
SHARE THIS The US Treasury (UST) curve bull flattened in July. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was largely uneventful, although the forward guidance on asset purchases was tweaked slightly to indicate that progress had been made...
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