SHARE THIS The equity market reaction to New Zealand’s second COVID-19 lockdown has been far more muted than the first time similar restrictions were imposed. The first lockdown from March 2020 caused an aggressive sell-off as investors and companies...
SHARE THIS The New Zealand stock market has been flat in the calendar year to date, with companies working to adapt to a number of risk factors. This puts it in stark contrast with markets in the rest of the developed world, which have seen gains...
SHARE THIS New Zealand's fixed income market has struggled so far in 2024 and inflation has remained high. However, there is growing confidence that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower the Official Cash Rate in the next six to 18 months due to a...
SHARE THIS We believe that the recent rise in New Zealand’s interest rates has put the bond market in a good place, as the alternative may have been a negative interest rate regime instead. Without higher interest rates the government would have found...
SHARE THIS Although New Zealand’s November 2022 rate hike was larger than expected, markets had been pricing in aggressive tightening for quite some time. This may soften the impact of the current challenges. Given that yields on some bonds are now...
SHARE THIS We view 2024 with optimism—markets could begin to be driven by company earnings rather than by inflation outcomes and interest rate expectations as they have in the past year, and New Zealand’s market is well placed to shrug off volatility...
SHARE THIS Despite continued struggles with inflation in New Zealand and elsewhere, our view is that the RBNZ’s next change to the OCR is likely to be downward, albeit at a later timing than the market has recently been expecting.
SHARE THIS New Zealand’s equity market is currently facing challenging times. However, a sense that the country’s interest rates may have peaked are some of the indications that the market’s outlook may brighten.
SHARE THIS New Zealand’s bond market performed well overall in July, although the long term sector outperformed its short term peers significantly.
SHARE THIS We think the New Zealand bond market looks very attractive relative to the rest of the world given how high our interest rates are. At the same time, we certainty aren’t immune to developments in the rest of the world, particularly the US,...
SHARE THIS The news of Prime Minister Suga’s impending resignation triggered a rally in Japanese equities this week, with the market hoping that a new administration will bring the COVID-19 outbreak under control and hasten the normalisation of the...
SHARE THIS Amid significantly negative returns in both the equity and fixed income markets at the end of last year, it was thought that 2023 would be the “year of the bond”. As we near the end of 2023, however, the bond market is still yet to live up...
SHARE THIS As New Zealand grapples with inflation and the spectre of a recession, we highlight the impact increasing mortgage rates may have on consumer spending. This is an important theme as it ties in with how we need to consider absolute interest...
SHARE THIS The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to have the Official Cash Rate (OCR) peak at 5.5% surprised the market, which had started to price in a peak of 5.75% or 6.0%. The lower-than-expected peak in the OCR is positive for equities as...
SHARE THIS Recent data demonstrate that declining demand is now a major concern for companies as recent rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increasingly constrain economic activity.
SHARE THIS New Zealand is seeing its first set of climate-related disclosures. Under this regime which began in January 2023, large organisations release "climate statements" about the potential impact of their operations on the climate and vice versa,...
SHARE THIS November was a stronger month for equities given that central banks around the world began suggesting that interest rates have peaked. While we do not expect to see any rate cuts in the near term, investors appear to believe that the worst...
SHARE THIS While market positioning has shifted towards a more constructive outlook, the macroeconomic mood has not. Rather, persistent upside pressures in equity markets have forced investors back into the market so they do not fall too far behind...
SHARE THIS We believe our active approach to credit investing allows us to better serve clients, as indiscriminate waves of downgrades following the turbulence that has rattled global financial markets this year presents us with compelling...
SHARE THIS Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) postponed a widely expected rate hike in August, pricing in the market has pulled back, supporting a view that the central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points (bps) at each of its next three...
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