SHARE THIS This month we focus on the prospect of Japanese stocks sustaining their upward trajectory after reaching record highs; we also assess how the country’s Q4 GDP contraction sharpens the focus on consumption and wages in 2024.
SHARE THIS We visited Vietnam in February and found that business and economic prospects have turned around completely for the better from a year ago. Interest rates have normalised, and mortgage terms are the most favourable that we have ever seen in...
SHARE THIS Japan equity was the best-performing asset class in 2023, but despite the Nikkei reaching all-time highs in 2024, Japan also recently experienced economic contraction. Against that backdrop, Japan Equity Investment Director Junichi Takayama...
SHARE THIS The Global Investment Committee sees robust corporate earnings, firm employment and expectations for rate cuts keeping markets more buoyant than anticipated by average consensus estimates.
SHARE THIS The Bank of Japan (BOJ) lifted interest rates for the first time in 17 years in March, making a historic departure from negative interest rates. We provide an overall evaluation of its decision, discuss how long accommodative monetary...
SHARE THIS We highlight the importance of making decisions based on probabilities and the best expected outcomes, assessing relevant information and acting ahead in constantly changing market conditions.
SHARE THIS Inflation uncertainty seems increasingly entrenched, which is less kind to developed market sovereign bonds. The US fiscal deficit is very large, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now in the challenging position of deciding when to cut rates....
SHARE THIS The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady as expected while upping its CPI forecast, paving the way for future rate hikes. Any further hawkish stance by the BOJ may depend on the persistence of positive real wages and inflation's impact...
SHARE THIS This month we analyse why the influence of capex and wages on spending behaviour are key to gauging whether an inflationary mindset is taking hold among households; amid an adjustment by Japanese stocks from record highs, we also look for...
SHARE THIS The US presidential election in November continues to cast a long shadow, and as the race between the 45th (Donald Trump) and 46th (incumbent Joe Biden) presidents quickens, divisions have only widened. The investment world is no exception,...
SHARE THIS What a difference a month can make. Discussions have pivoted from interest rate cuts in the US to the possibility of an increase, while Chinese equities have rallied sharply on a combination of attractive value and hopes of effective policy...
SHARE THIS New Zealand’s equity market is currently facing challenging times. However, a sense that the country’s interest rates may have peaked are some of the indications that the market’s outlook may brighten.
SHARE THIS Our central scenario is for positive GDP growth in most major economies, with mild upside risks to growth in all regions but Europe. Within this central scenario, we anticipate range-bound inflation with a gradual disinflationary trend in...
SHARE THIS This month we focus on the surge in long-term JGB yields and whether it poses a threat to equities; we also discuss the potential upside for Japan’s small- and mid-cap stocks.
SHARE THIS Japan, a nation of “cash-rich” companies, is undergoing corporate reforms aimed at raising valuation of companies by improving their capital efficiency. The reforms, along with cash-rich companies' historical outperformance and strategic...
SHARE THIS The Nikkei experienced its worst single-day fall early in August after reaching a record high just the previous month. Despite the recent slide, domestic factors supporting Japanese equities remain relatively unchanged, in our view. We...
SHARE THIS In August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, marking the first change in the Official Cash Rate since May 2023. We expect New Zealand equities to be supported if the central bank maintains an accommodative approach.
SHARE THIS Nikko AM NZ released its first annual “climate statement” under New Zealand’s new climate-related disclosures regime in July. The framework requires approximately 200 organisations, including large publicly listed companies, to release...
SHARE THIS This month we assess views in the market that the BOJ may have taken a dovish turn at its September policy meeting; we also point to further signs of a steady rise in wages and how that paves the way for a recovery in consumption and,...
SHARE THIS Japan’s long history of undercompensating equity investors, a legacy of deflation, is coming to an end with its risk premium now achieving parity with that of the US. This historic shift is being driven by rising dividend payouts ratios,...
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