Central bank policy from the US, Japan and Europe are strongly affecting the current global fixed income markets. New Zealand and Canadian economies also face continued pressure. We maintain the view that there is a positive environment for emerging markets, but have moved slightly more cautious.
On the back of expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in the next months, the global search for yield is likely to support demand for Indian, Malaysian and Indonesian bonds.
In developed markets, global bonds have benefited from recent flows out of Japan into positive-yielding markets. We maintain the view that there is a positive environment for emerging markets.
July saw US Treasury yields ending in mixed trading. Yields of shorter maturities climbed, while those of longer maturities fell. Plus updates on Malaysia, Singapore, India, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and others.
The major consideration for markets in June was the Brexit vote in the UK. Although we are sceptical about the most pessimistic scenarios for the UK, there will be some negative impact on growth.
We expect the impact of Britain’s exit from the EU on Asia’s economic activity to be relatively muted, as the region has comparatively low trade links with the UK. Plus updates on US Treasuries, Singapore, India, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and others.
The immediate fallout from the Brexit win has been a strong flight to safety.
US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged in May. The impact of a disappointing US payroll figure was offset by the release of the US Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes, which revealed that most policymakers favoured a rate hike in June should the US economy continue to improve.
Continued easy monetary policy in Europe and Japan will be supportive for global interest rates, but the case for further limited rate hikes in the US remains in place for 2016.
Yields of USTs climbed steadily for the most part in the month. Hopes of stabilization in the Chinese economy, due to recent economic numbers printing better than expected, underpinned demand for riskier assets.