Investment Insights

 

It has continued to be a wild roller-coaster ride for investors, and unfortunately, it is not likely to be very calm for the foreseeable future. Investors must keep a keen eye on geopolitical risk and be ready to act if such appear to accelerate into a situation that could significantly impact markets.

Interpreting Signals in Unprecedented Times - Japan Equity Market Outlook

No turning back — 2% inflation target not only intact but enhanced with a new “inflation overshooting commitment”

'Peak oil' to 'Peak demand': Implications for global investors

Although it is tempting to join the ‘peak demand’ bandwagon, as investors it is important to understand the impact that different technologies (and their timing) have on energy prices.

Will Japan Exit the UK?

Our UK expert on BREXIT and our chief global strategist respond to Japan’s concern about its investments in the UK.

Only central banks can break the cycle of ever-declining bond yields

QE policies have had a material impact on bond yields and valuations. We believe that the evolution of these policies will be more important than fundamentals in indicating when bonds can break the cycle of ever-declining yields.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - September 2016

Central bank policy from the US, Japan and Europe are strongly affecting the current global fixed income markets. New Zealand and Canadian economies also face continued pressure.

More Radical Central Bank Policies and Implications for Stock Picking

Given how important central bank policies are for the pricing of assets, our focus has to be on what they do next. If debt monetisation were to occur, it would have significant implications for equity investing.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - September 2016

Asia ex-Japan equities extended its upward momentum in August, returning 3.4% in US Dollar (USD) terms and outperforming MSCI World by 3.3%.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - September 2016

USTs ended marginally lower in August as the market adjusted to the possibility of a Fed rate hike, buoyed by sustained resilience in the labour market.

Electric Vehicles: Are they disruptive?

In our view, electric vehicles will have significant implications (both positive and negative) for many sectors, particularly automotive and oil, presenting investors with interesting opportunities, particularly in Asia.

A deeper look into Japan and China's debt problems

The prevailing market view on the region remains negative, mainly centring on China's debt problem and general doubts about Abenomics. We focus on some aspects of this negativity from a sovereign balance sheet perspective and conclude that the potential dangers are overstated.

Why it matters: Nigeria's Global Oil Impact

Oil production in Nigeria has been severely hampered in recent months as local militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers, have committed numerous attacks on oil pipelines in the region, materially lowering the country’s oil production. Our Emerging Market (EM) debt team in London take a closer look the political situation in Nigeria, the origins of the conflict, prospects for its potential resolution and its impact on global oil prices.

Is this the end of the 35-year bond rally?

Many market commentators have been speculating that we are finally coming to the end of the bond rally that has endured for the past 35 years. It's worth noting that this is nothing new—we have heard similar suggestions many times before over recent years.

Japan’s “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance

Given the release of the second quarter data, we update our decade-long theme about improving corporate governance in Japan.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - August 2016

In developed markets, global bonds have benefited from recent flows out of Japan into positive-yielding markets. The New Zealand and Canadian economies face continued pressure and a September US rate rise is now looking more unlikely.

Hitting the Mark: Can Third Arrow Reforms Benefit Investors?

Japan is a consensus-driven culture and improved corporate governance is now the consensus. There are clear signs that many companies are moving towards more shareholder-oriented management.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - August 2016

Asia ex Japan equities rose by 4.8% in USD terms in July, outpacing global equities. Hopes for monetary and fiscal stimulus led to strong buying of Asian equities.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - August 2016

US Treasury (UST) yields ended July mixed: yields of shorter maturities climbed, whilse those of longer maturities fell.

India – Modi Magic, the GST Game Changer

The CEO of our Indian joint venture and our senior EM portfolio manager in London analyze the great importance of recent legislative developments in India.

Fintech – Disruptor or Saviour?

Our expert on Asian financials describes the exciting technological developments that will change the way we all do business in the future.

Erdogan Hammers the Parallel State

Our expert on Turkey details his cautious stance on Turkey's near-term future.

Bias and Staying Power in Investing

Having great ideas is just a beginning. Experience and execution are the requisite ingredients to turn ideas into real performance.

Japan's Election: Abe's Continued Focus on the Economy

Our Chief Strategist in Japan shares his views on political landscape and the economy.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - July 2016

The major consideration for markets in June was the Brexit vote in the UK. Although we are sceptical about the most pessimistic scenarios for the UK, there will be some negative impact on growth.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - July 2016

Asia ex Japan equities rose by 2.7% in USD terms in June, outpacing global equities. The Brexit shock proved short-lived for regional markets as investors started to price in greater monetary and fiscal stimulus across major economies.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - July 2016

US Treasury (UST) yields gained in a volatile mon across asset classes. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) scaled back projections for raising interest rates, while the UK voted to leave the EU by a 4% margin, surprising markets.

Attraction of Emerging Market Debt

Emerging Market reforms won't stop or pause with the current market recovery.

Nikko AM URAP Index

In February 2014, Japan's Financial Services Agency released its "Principles for Responsible Institutional Investors" - otherwise known as Japan's Stewardship Code - with the state aim of promoting the "sustainable growth of companies through investment and dialogue".

What does Brexit mean for Emerging Markets?

Following our analysis of the recent UK vote, our Emerging Market debt team in London discusses Brexit's potential ramifications for this asset class.

Abenomics hasn't failed yet, but it does face global headwinds

Many are wondering if it's time to give up on Abenomics. While some of the scepticism is understandable, we believe it is too early to throw in the towel.

BREXIT, BREXIT! Where’s The Exit?

Two of our senior portfolio managers in London update their earlier pieces on what lies ahead for what should be a long-drawn out BREXIT path.

Brexit - Japan Equity Update

In light of the significant volatility ensuing from the results of the EU Referendum in the UK, we share our initial thoughts on the evolving situation as well as provide an update on the strategy you are invested or have an interest in and the implications of the event on the broader investment landscape in Japan.

Brexit - Asian Fixed Income Update

The immediate fallout from the Brexit win has been a strong flight to safety. US Treasuries rallied with the UST 10-year yield down to 1.44%, lower by 31 basis points (bps) on 27 June 2016.

Slowdown but No Global Recession, with EU Cohesion, but Struggling UK

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee’s post-BREXIT scenario, including market and economic targets, is on the moderately gloomy side.

Brexit: Outlook for Global Fixed Income & Credit

Uncertainty after Brexit vote, but the correction in valuations and market volatility could provide buying opportunities in some fundamentally strong credits.

Brexit: Where to now for markets?

Although it is still too early to determine the full implications of Brexit over the longer term, in the short term, we can expect significant market volatility as uncertainty prevails, but this does not mean that investors should panic.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - June 2016

Asia ex Japan equities declined by 1.3% in USD terms in May, largely on the back of currency weakness. Markets started the month under pressure, but later recovered on better-than-expected US economic data and recovering oil prices.

The UK's late June vote in favour of 'Brexit' was initially read as a deep negative, particularly given that markets were priced strongly in favour of a 'Remain' vote. However, after brief reflection, markets outside the region saw a rally, with risk asset performance more than making up for Brexit losses.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - June 2016

US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged in May. The impact of a disappointing US payroll figure was offset by the release of the US Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes, which revealed that most policymakers favoured a rate hike in June should the US economy continue to improve.

Brexit: In or Out? The Final Run In.

Two of our senior portfolio managers in London update their earlier piece on BREXIT with numerous points of great interest on this crucial topic.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - June 2016

Continued easy monetary policy in Europe and Japan will be supportive for global interest rates, but the case for further limited rate hikes in the US remains in place for 2016.

Global Oil Update: Continuing positive outlook or flash in the pan?

Our oil experts in London and New York update their bullish views in January with new facts, while retaining their positive intermediate-term view on oil prices.

Japan’s Financial State is Maintainable

Our Chief Strategist in Japan explains why Japan’s government debt situation is sustainable.

Fed rate rise most likely in September, but could be delayed until 2017

Our global rates and currencies strategist in Australia lays out his dovish Fed scenario as an alternative to our house view. In it, he expects the Fed to wait until September or later to raise rates, and states his case that the Fed’s actions do not affect US bond yields.

Liquidity Fears May Prompt a Market Rethink

We believe it is time to reassess market attitudes towards liquidity. We may have to start moving towards a model where investment horizons and liquidity expectations are more appropriately matched to the asset classes being invested in.

EU Refugee Crisis: European Weak Points and Outlook

Our London-based portfolio manager, Simon Down, and his colleagues review the refugee crisis that is turning European politics into a "hornets' nest."

Emerging Markets: Are we there yet?

Our two leading Global Emerging Market debt experts, both based in London, weigh the possibilities of a sustained upturn in this long-suffering asset class.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - May 2016

Asia ex Japan (AxJ) equities declined by 0.9% in USD terms in April, largely on the back of currency weakness. Oil markets reached their highest levels since last November, while activity data in China improved.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - May 2016

US Treasury (UST) yields rose in April, as hopes of stabilization in the Chinese economy underpinned demand for riskier assets.

Abenomics is Alive and Well

Our Chief Global Strategist explains the reasons why there is too much unjustified pessimism about Abenomics.

Disruptive Innovation

Multi Asset Strategies to Capture Growth with Lower Volatility

The changing shape of China's economy