Donald Trump winning the US presidential election delivered a big surprise, defying poll predictions but ringing consistent with the wave of populism sweeping the developed world.
2016 may best be remembered as the year in which Trump won and the world changed. The question becomes which reforms will take centre stage.
Our Multi-Asset portfolio manager based in Singapore reviews the prospects for profit margin expansion in the three main Emerging Market regions.
Emerging markets (EM) have endured strong adjustments in commodities and currencies that coupled with reforms makes a good case for better growth ahead.
Many are wondering if it's time to give up on Abenomics. While some of the scepticism is understandable, we believe it is too early to throw in the towel.
The UK's late June vote in favour of 'Brexit' was initially read as a deep negative, particularly given that markets were priced strongly in favour of a 'Remain' vote. However, after brief reflection, markets outside the region saw a rally, with risk asset performance more than making up for Brexit losses.
Since 2011, Brazilian assets have re-priced to the downside. Given the size of the adjustment – both in commodities and assets – the question is whether Brazil is now presenting attractive investment opportunities.
2016 began in complete panic, with risk assets including emerging markets (EMs) selling off deeply through the first few weeks of the year.
As we have seen over the past year in the equity market, the more Beijing wants to exert control, the more it slips away. Is pragmatism going to trump ideology in Beijing? In the current environment, the PBOC letting the RMB free float might not be so unbelievable after all.
Our Singapore Multi-Asset and Equity team analysts cover oil’s swoon using a bit of humor, but the clear-cut conclusion is of great importance.
In early 2016, hedge fund Nevsky Capital decided to call it quits after 15 years of successful asset management. One of the reasons for the closure is that since the global financial crisis (GFC), emerging markets (EMs) are breaking away from the transparent 'Washington Concensus' model and are now prone to much less predictible nationalistic policies.
Real yields and inflation expectations currently suggest exceptionally low growth and low inflation far out into the future.
There are several credible reasons to expect that QE will boost corporate earnings in Europe, though by not as much as in the US. However the risk of disappointment relative to inflated expectations remains high.
These reforms coupled with strong balance sheets and demographics will support higher levels of global growth for decades to come.