The Trump reflation trade may have lost some of its shine during the quarter, but any disappointment was more than overshadowed by strong global data as exports and production continued to gather pace. In fact, fading enthusiasm for Trump’s ability to execute has arguably served as a tailwind for Emerging Market (EM) assets in the form of a weaker dollar and moderating long term rates.
MSCI Asia ex Japan (AxJ) was up 3.4% in USD terms, marginally outperforming MSCI AC World. Absolute returns were positive for all AxJ markets except the Philippines. The Taiwan Dollar (TWD) was the best performing currency in AxJ followed by the Korean Won and Indian Rupee. Buoyed by the partial unwind of the post-election Trump-trade, gold was the best performing commodity.
US Treasury (UST) yields traded in a tight range in February. Risk assets rallied and UST yields rose in the first half of the month, on the back of the prospect of tax cuts and a Dodd-Frank overhaul in the US. Subsequently, yields were pressured lower by concerns about a possible victory by Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential elections. Overall, the 2-year and 10-year points on the UST curve ended the month about 6 basis points (bps) higher and 6bps lower respectively.
With President Trump announcing that he will be releasing his tax plans in the coming weeks, we have shifted to a more cautious position on US duration. The risk is that President Trump announces a sizeable stimulus package, with the backing of the broad Republican base. This would raise fears that the US Federal Reserve would need to act more quickly than expected, and with markets only pricing in two or three rate hikes in 2017, we believe that markets are under-pricing the risks of this announcement.
Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities returned 6.2% in US Dollar (USD) terms, outperforming MSCI World. Singapore, Hong Kong and Chinese equities outperformed while Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand lagged. Asian currencies generally strengthened against the USD over the month.
US Treasury (UST) yields ended higher in January as weaker-than-expected payroll data led markets to moderate their forecasts for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes in 2017. Overall, 2-year and 10-year UST yields rose about 2 and 1 basis points (bps) respectively in the month.
Donald Trump winning the US presidential election delivered a big surprise, defying poll predictions but ringing consistent with the wave of populism sweeping the developed world. First witnessed early last summer with the Brexit vote, the rise of populism remains a key risk in Europe, while the implications for the shift in US policy are more likely to be mixed.
Credit markets are expected to have another positive year. We expect economic growth in Asia to be stable but see some potential downside risks. In Europe, political risk remains high for 2017. Some of our key themes are: hybrid bonds, financials, oil/emerging markets and High Yield.
Economic growth in Asia is expected to remain broadly stable in 2017. While there will be greater external uncertainties as well as country-specific challenges, Asian economies are, on balance, better equipped to deal with external pressures compared to a few years back.
Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities returned -2.0% in US Dollar (USD) terms, underperforming MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets (EM). Currencies across AxJ generally weakened against the dollar following the Federal Reserve's (Fed’s) decision to hike rates. Meanwhile, Gold declined 2.2% while oil jumped 8.66% month-on-month.
USTs weakened further in December, as caution prevailed following the November sell-off. As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). 10-year UST yields ended the month at 2.44%, about 6 basis points (bps) higher compared to end-November levels.
We are currently in a position where we are facing more questions than answers regarding Trump's policy stance as he comes into office and how it will affect the market.
Global Equity - Asia ex-Japan Equity - Japan equity
This PDF is a compilation of 2017 market outlook reports by three of our equity teams.
We believe that in an increasingly uncertain world, Japan’s less uncertain market will provide a compelling opportunity for serious investors.
The phrase “lower for longer” could well become unfashionable very quickly after years of central banks combating the forces of deflation and wishing for inflation instead.
The cumulative positioning of investors in companies and asset classes that are deemed safe in a “lower for longer” environment is undergoing a significant test at present.
2016 may best be remembered as the year in which Trump won and the world changed. The question becomes which reforms will take centre stage.
Asia ex-Japan equities returned -2.9% in US Dollar (USD) terms, underperforming MSCI World. US president-elect Donald Trump's stance on the repeal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a domestic US focus at the expense of foreign trade has initially been perceived as negative for Asia, although there remains much uncertainty with regard to US policy going forward.
UST yields surged in the month as Trump's election victory prompted expectations of a significant fiscal package and possible upside inflation risk under the new administration.
October was another difficult month for Global credit markets, in particular for Investment Grade bonds. By contrast, more risky High Yield bonds outperformed. In terms of sector results, financial issuers outperformed.
Asia ex-Japan equities returned -1.5% in US Dollar (USD) terms, outperforming the MSCI World which declined by 1.9%. Crude oil prices finished the month down as OPEC members failed to reach a conclusive deal on supply, while political developments in US and ASEAN were key drivers of markets during the month.
USTs ended lower in October. Better US economic data and a hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bolstered expectations of a December interest rate hike. 10-year UST yields rose about 23 basis points (bps) to 1.83%.
"Find growth and you will find performance" was our Asian Equity investment mantra in early 2016 as the world grappled with slowing growth and lethargy with monetary experimentaton in low and depressed interest rates.
Emerging markets (EM) have endured strong adjustments in commodities and currencies that coupled with reforms makes a good case for better growth ahead. Still, it will take time for EM to navigate to more stable sources of growth, requiring relative stability through the delicate transition.
Asia ex-Japan equities rose in September, returning 1.6% in US Dollar (USD) terms and outperforming both the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices. Risk appetite remained healthy following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and a more favourable US presidential debate outcome.
USTs ended September mixed. While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and the Bank of Japan reinforced commitment to monetary easing, the ECB's lack of new stimulus disappointed the market.
Central bank policy from the US, Japan and Europe are strongly affecting the current global fixed income markets. New Zealand and Canadian economies also face continued pressure. We maintain the view that there is a positive environment for emerging markets, but have moved slightly more cautious.
Asian markets extended their rally into August. Asian stocks were supported by a robust reporting season where earnings were mostly in line with consensus expectations.
On the back of expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in the next months, the global search for yield is likely to support demand for Indian, Malaysian and Indonesian bonds.
In developed markets, global bonds have benefited from recent flows out of Japan into positive-yielding markets. We maintain the view that there is a positive environment for emerging markets.
We continue to see good value in Asia ex-Japan equities for long-term investors. Asia still has considerable room at both the monetary and fiscal levels to stimulate economies if needed and governments appear willing to act on reforms and infrastructure investment.
July saw US Treasury yields ending in mixed trading. Yields of shorter maturities climbed, while those of longer maturities fell. Plus updates on Malaysia, Singapore, India, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and others.
The major consideration for markets in June was the Brexit vote in the UK. Although we are sceptical about the most pessimistic scenarios for the UK, there will be some negative impact on growth.
The UK's late June vote in favour of 'Brexit' was initially read as a deep negative, particularly given that markets were priced strongly in favour of a 'Remain' vote. However, after brief reflection, markets outside the region saw a rally, with risk asset performance more than making up for Brexit losses. Emerging markets have been a primary beneficiary...
We continue to see good value in Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities for long-term investors. We continue to advocate that Asia is ultimately a net beneficiary of lower-for-longer commodity prices and offers significant growth opportunities led by infrastructure development, albeit contingent on positive government action.
We expect the impact of Britain’s exit from the EU on Asia’s economic activity to be relatively muted, as the region has comparatively low trade links with the UK. Plus updates on US Treasuries, Singapore, India, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and others.
This report looks at the Japanese Stewardship Code and its impact on Japanese companies' approach to ROE. It also introduces the Nikko AM URAP Index. URAP stands for “Upside in ROE at an Attractive Price”.
In light of the significant volatility ensuing from the results of the EU Referendum in the UK, we share our initial thoughts on the evolving situation as well as provide an update on the strategy you are invested or have an interest in and the implications of the event on the broader investment landscape in Japan.
The immediate fallout from the Brexit win has been a strong flight to safety.
Asia ex Japan equities declined by 1.3% in USD terms in May, largely on the back of currency weakness.
US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged in May. The impact of a disappointing US payroll figure was offset by the release of the US Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes, which revealed that most policymakers favoured a rate hike in June should the US economy continue to improve.
Continued easy monetary policy in Europe and Japan will be supportive for global interest rates, but the case for further limited rate hikes in the US remains in place for 2016.
Asia ex Japan edged lower in April, most currencies depreciated against the USD.
Yields of USTs climbed steadily for the most part in the month. Hopes of stabilization in the Chinese economy, due to recent economic numbers printing better than expected, underpinned demand for riskier assets.
2016 began in complete panic, with risk assets including emerging markets selling off deeply through the first few weeks of the year. This was then followed by the strongest rally since 2012.
In early 2016, hedge fund Nevsky Capital decided to call it quits after 15 years of successful asset management. One of the reasons for the closure is that since the global financial crisis, emerging markets are breaking away from the transparent 'Washington Concensus' model.