China has had a significant impact on the supply side in two key global commodities during 2016. Going forward, look out for further actions from China on the supply side of commodities.
There has been much concern lately about the new US administration’s trade policy. Taking a step back and looking at global trade numbers, we can draw a number of conclusions that might explain America’s new thinking on trade.
Asia’s Credit market has come a long way since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998, having evolved into a large, deep and liquid market.
As the UK’s pathway to EU exit evolves, one of our local portfolio managers outlines our current thoughts on the UK’s economic and political outlook.
Given the challenges, why bother?
Our head of Global Strategy in New York analyzes and forecasts the developments of major topics arising from the new Administration.
In-depth report: Economic growth in Asia is expected to remain broadly stable in 2017. While there will be greater external uncertainties as well as country-specific challenges, Asian economies are, on balance, better equipped to deal with external pressures compared to a few years back.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager for Emerging Market Debt in London forecasts that in 2017, this asset class could well match 2016’s achievement.
Why Asia Credit should stand alone from Global Emerging Market Debt.
Trump certainly is non-conventional, in many ways similar to Teddy Roosevelt. Hopefully, Japan can adapt to this new reality, and instead of blocking Trump's initiatives, be able to have acceptable compromise “deals” ready.
Nikko AM's Global Investment Committee's 2017 Outlook — More Economic and Equity Reflation, Despite Less Dovish Central Banks
The phrase “lower for longer” could well become unfashionable very quickly after years of central banks combating the forces of deflation and wishing for inflation instead.
Our China Fixed Income expert in Singapore expounds upon how the Trump election is forcing China into taking specific economic policies.
A combination of key regional factors—including demographics, urbanization and existing infrastructure gaps—all point to sustainable growth for healthcare in Asia ex Japan.
Following the US election, we have seen bond rates continuing to increase, a stronger US dollar, firmer commodity prices, and a US stock market at all-time highs. Is optimism around the US President-elect’s fiscal expansion masking the true deflationary picture?
We expect Italian assets to underperform until it becomes clear who will be able to form and lead a new government. Nevertheless the outcome of the referendum was already priced into financial markets.
Following Trump’s election, our Emerging Market team in London, supported by John Vail, our Global Chief Strategist, discuss what, at this early stage, we can potentially expect to see from the US regarding its relationship with Emerging Market economies.
Our oil experts in the US and London analyze the Saudi oil conundrum.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager for Asian equities reflects on Asian markets in the wake of Trump’s Triumph.
Neither Brexit nor Trump’s win was an accident – ‘the people’, in particular the working and middle classes, are purposefully and deliberately giving the political elites a thump on the nose.
Much like the BREXIT result, Americans surprised the consensus with an anti-establishment vote.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager for ASEAN equities reviews the trend towards Strongman rule in ASEAN.
Simon Down, one of our senior fixed income portfolio managers in London, gives his latest analysis on the evolving Brexit situation.
Our Multi-Asset portfolio manager based in Singapore reviews the prospects for profit margin expansion in the three main Emerging Market regions.
With several months passing since the UK referendum on EU membership, two of our senior fixed income portfolio managers in London, Simon Down and Holger Mertens, update their views.
Our UK expert on BREXIT and our chief global strategist respond to Japan’s concern about its investments in the UK.
The prevailing market view on the region remains negative, mainly centring on China's debt problem and general doubts about Abenomics. We focus on some aspects of this negativity from a sovereign balance sheet perspective and conclude that the potential dangers are overstated.
Oil production in Nigeria has been severely hampered in recent months as local militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers, have committed numerous attacks on oil pipelines in the region, materially lowering the country’s oil production. Our Emerging Market (EM) debt team in London take a closer look the political situation in Nigeria, the origins of the conflict, prospects for its potential resolution and its impact on global oil prices.
Japan is a consensus-driven culture and improved corporate governance is now the consensus. There are clear signs that many companies are moving towards more shareholder-oriented management.
The CEO of our Indian joint venture and our senior EM portfolio manager in London analyze the great importance of recent legislative developments in India.
Our expert on Asian financials describes the exciting technological developments that will change the way we all do business in the future.
Our expert on Turkey details his cautious stance on Turkey's near-term future.
Our Chief Strategist in Japan shares his views on political landscape and the economy.
Following our analysis of the recent UK vote, our Emerging Market debt team in London discusses Brexit's potential ramifications for this asset class.
Many are wondering if it's time to give up on Abenomics. While some of the scepticism is understandable, we believe it is too early to throw in the towel.
Two of our senior portfolio managers in London update their earlier pieces on what lies ahead for what should be a long-drawn out BREXIT path.
Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee’s post-BREXIT scenario, including market and economic targets, is on the moderately gloomy side.
Uncertainty after Brexit vote, but the correction in valuations and market volatility could provide buying opportunities in some fundamentally strong credits.
Although it is still too early to determine the full implications of Brexit over the longer term, in the short term, we can expect significant market volatility as uncertainty prevails, but this does not mean that investors should panic.
Two of our senior portfolio managers in London update their earlier piece on BREXIT with numerous points of great interest on this crucial topic.
Our oil experts in London and New York update their bullish views in January with new facts, while retaining their positive intermediate-term view on oil prices.
Our global rates and currencies strategist in Australia lays out his dovish Fed scenario as an alternative to our house view. In it, he expects the Fed to wait until September or later to raise rates, and states his case that the Fed’s actions do not affect US bond yields.
Our London-based portfolio manager, Simon Down, and his colleagues review the refugee crisis that is turning European politics into a "hornets' nest."
Our two leading Global Emerging Market debt experts, both based in London, weigh the possibilities of a sustained upturn in this long-suffering asset class.
Our Chief Global Strategist explains the reasons why there is too much unjustified pessimism about Abenomics.
Our Asian currency expert discusses the potential ramifications of the increasing CNY-orientation for Asian currencies.
For the next 12 months, we are quite positive on performance prospect for global credit, singling out five investment themes.
With banks using negative interest rates and their stocks plummeting, many are wondering if the world is headed into another recession. Though things may seem grim, the truth is that another recession seems to be unlikely.
Since 2011, Brazilian assets have re-priced to the downside. Given the size of the adjustment – both in commodities and assets – the question is whether Brazil is now presenting attractive investment opportunities.
Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on March 29th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.
We expect June and December Fed hikes, but only mild further easing ahead for the BOJ and ECB. Meanwhile, we expect oil prices to creep higher through 2016 despite the stronger USD due to relatively firm economic developments in China and the G-3.
We expect that global equity and bond investing will be positive for Yen based investors due to Yen weakness, but for USD based investors, we are taking only a neutral stance on global equities due to a cautious forecast for US equities, whereas we are positive on Asia-Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe. Meanwhile, we are moderately negative on bonds in each region when measured in USD terms, so we underweight them.
Our Singapore-based Fixed Income Portfolio Manager details the reasons for ASEAN’s recent rebound and why such should continue.
Although the current polls do not indicate a clear majority outcome, in this piece we will examine some of the issues that may cause sentiment to shift towards a Brexit, and what the UK leaving the European Union might mean for the UK and EU economies post breakup.
While a recession in the US is not our base scenario, the impact of such an event on credit exposure is worthy of consideration. In our historical analysis we've found that the driver of past recessions can provide important insight into which credit maturities are most attractive.
Our global strategist sheds light on how corporate profit margins are reflecting the continuing improvement of corporate governance in Japan.
Our Global Credit staff in London detail their rationale behind concentrating on service sector exposure globally.
Our global equities team in Edinburgh explains their views on the prospects for their asset class.
As we have seen over the past year in the equity market, the more Beijing wants to exert control, the more it slips away. Is pragmatism going to trump ideology in Beijing? In the current environment, the PBOC letting the RMB free float might not be so unbelievable after all.
In our view, the USD will soften when the Fed comes to accept the reality of slow-to-no growth globally and becomes more dovish in its language and approach.
Our London and US analysts review oil prices from the supply and demand angle and they note that global demand growth remains high while global supply is narrowing, indicating that oilfs price swoon could be over.
Our Chief Global Strategist regards Japan positively in the global-macro context and predicts that Japanese equities will outperform global equities in the first half of 2016.
Our Singapore fixed income team expounds on the outlook for this clearly globally important factor.
James Eginton provides his insights on the economic transition in China following a recent research trip to the region. The transition from a reliance on infrastructure investment to consumer spending - perhaps the largest the world will ever see - has significant implications for global growth.
John Vail reflects on the Fed decision and the path forward. The Fed was even more dovish than apparent in the headlines.
Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on December 8th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.
We only expect mild further easing ahead, especially as the ECB does not wish to cause a rupture while the Fed is hiking rates.
We forecast that Asia Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe will outperform in the next six months, while the US should underperform and, thus, deserve an underweight stance vs. all other regions.
Our investment management teams have again come together to update their views given new developments in India.
The IMF's decision to include the Renminbi into the SDR is a major push for the RMB to become one of the world's major reserve currencies.
Our lead Australian fixed income portfolio manager discusses her intermediate-term outlook for the bond market “down under.”
Developed and emerging markets in Asia ex-Japan have clearly been under tremendous pressure in recent months, including redemptions of more than USD 50bn from the region in September, the heaviest ever witnessed.
We update our views on whether ECB QE has had a positive effect on corporate earnings.
A better supply/demand balance in Europe, outperformance of “high yield“ globally, positive event-risk in the telecom sector and opportunities in local currencies, as well as other credit related investment themes, all present interesting opportunities for generating positive returns, even in a challenging environment.
Our Nikko Asset Management fixed income experts, led by Simon Down, discuss the prospects for commodity currencies.
Markets and economies are still being dictated to by unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus. We believe in building a portfolio of companies that are more likely to flourish in the growth environment beyond 2015.
We explain how Abenomics is the "icing on the cake" of corporate governance improvement over the last decade.
A concentrated, stock-picking approach is the best way to serve a long-term investor's goal of capital appreciation
Even though the current term premium on US Treasuries seems too low, it is unlikely to rise significantly unless offshore bond yields start to rise.
For investors outside China, whether they have holdings in Chinese shares or not, coming to a coherent investment view on the country has become imperative as it exerts an ever-increasing influence on global markets.
While RMB weakness will likely persist for a few months, we don't expect the currency to devalue more than 10% versus USD and we maintain our confidence that the currency will be included into the IMF SDR basket in a year from now.
India is a key market to watch in the coming years. Our expert on India, Andrew Holland, CEO of Nikko AM's joint venture there, discusses with Simon Down of our UK fixed income team the forecast for reforms in the country, with some surprising conclusions.
What lies ahead for iron ore prices, particularly with the Chinese economy slowing and undergoing a transition away from a materials-intensive economy to a consumption-driven economy?
Like many countries that have previously refused to reform at all levels, sometimes it takes a true crisis to change.
The sharp equity market correction in recent weeks after a very strong run over the past year will not have a crisis-level impact to the broader economy.
Nikko AM Asia views the recent corrections in Chinese equities, particularly in the onshore markets, as healthy given the sharp increases in value that had occurred due to a frenzied retail market intoxicated by relatively cheap margin financing.
Real yields and inflation expectations currently suggest exceptionally low growth and low inflation far out into the future.
We do not expect the recent steepening of the bund yield curve to be the beginning of a sustained new trend. Moreover, Eurozone and German economic data, albeit improving, are not sufficient to support the higher bund yields on a sustained basis.
Since the Fed starting hinting at the normalization of interest rates a year ago, Asian central banks' foreign reserve accumulations - except for India and Hong Kong - have either incurred substantial losses or remained flat.
The importance of President Xi Jinping's strong leadership cannot be stressed enough. Under him China is undergoing dramatic changes. While the most thorough cleansing of state corruption is ongoing, elements of China's grand strategy are becoming more evident both domestically and on the global stage.
Given the significant proportion of real estate investment as a percentage of GDP, as well as the proportion of local government revenue generated from land sales, the property market remains a crucial driver of the Chinese economy.
Interest rate and foreign exchange volatility has begun to increase as the market anticipates the time when the US Federal Reserve will start to reduce monetary accommodation and raise interest rates.
In sum, there certainly are some worrisome issues, as always, but we find none of them convincing enough to prevent moderate increases in equity prices.
Much as we expected, China's economy has continued to slow faster than consensus, but does not appear to be in a hard landing.
Central Banks: Despite firm economic growth, we believe that a negative YoY CPI through September will steady the Fed's hand.
Coupled with our expectation for global bond yields to rise moderately, we maintain our overweight view on global equities vs. bonds.
Through 2014, one of the largest asset classes in the world was virtually unnoticed as an indicator that Europe is not pushing the global economy into widespread deflation.
There are several credible reasons to expect that QE will boost corporate earnings in Europe, though by not as much as in the US. However the risk of disappointment relative to inflated expectations remains high.
In 2015, markets will be looking for any pick up in European and Japanese inflation as a result of their QE programmes. With growth picking up, we may start to see signs of a rise in US inflation.