We discuss the reasons behind the Japanese equity market’s recent outperformance and the factors likely required for the gains to be sustainable in the longer term. We also assess the recent surge by the Mothers Index and key points to watch going forward.
With the global outbreak of COVID-19 in the first half of 2020, the world was turned upside down. Under such circumstances, Japanese companies are now faced with new challenges to adapt to this “new normal”.
Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s new prime minister, is widely expected to retain his predecessor’s fiscal and monetary policies known as “Abenomics”.
Clearly, it remains difficult to predict events in this volatile environment, but in the interest of our clients, we do our best and fortunately this time, we had virtually unanimous agreement on a similar scenario as in June, both politically and economically.
Despite major improvements over the last two decades, some critics will always doubt the progress of economic reform in Japan.
It does not seem that there are enough differences between Abenomics and the proposed economic policies of likely new Prime Minister Suga to justify the completely new portmanteau “Suganomics,” as a few analysts have suggested.
In late August the Nikkei made a full recovery from the "Corona shock" lows touched in March, amid initiatives by the government and the central bank.
Although it is fairly clear that Buffett’s investment is not just a passive one in that he intends to collaborate on business ventures with these trading companies, the fact that the world’s most famous investor has committed to such large sums has ramifications for both domestic and international perceptions about Japanese equities.
Many media reports are suggesting that Yoshihide Suga is leading the race to be Japan’s next prime minister, with a main question being whether he, without a large faction of his own, will just be a temporary placeholder for new leader.
It is attention-grabbing for some analysts and soothsayers to speculate on politics, but this is no casual matter.
The Japanese equity market dropped in July, with the TOPIX (w/dividends) declining 4.02% on-month and the Nikkei 225 (w/dividends) falling 2.60%.