Japan

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

BOJ Indicates a Move Towards "True Core CPI" More Globally

Now that oil prices have declined, if a central bank targets its overall CPI at 2.0% for 2015, it would likely be labeled as being overly aggressive and perhaps attempting to unfairly weaken its currency.

Our Regional Equity and Asset Class Forecasts

The investment world is changing quickly and 2015 should prove to be a very interesting year, but we see no reason to change our long-held positive view on global equities.

Fed "Baby Steps" and "Sneaky Sovereign" ECB QE

Recently, two major voices in the "core Fed" (Fischer and Dudley) have indicated that despite low inflation, the Fed's main scenario is to begin hiking rates in mid 2015.

G-3 Economies Should Surprise in 2015

Our Global Investment Committee always seems to meet in the middle of great volatility, and this time was no exception, with the investment world facing all sorts of new challenges.

Abenomics the Winner in Japan's Election

In our view, the LDP coalition's maintenance of a strong two-thirds majority in this election will greatly help Prime Minister Abe and his party's reform efforts, while likely bolstering Yen weakness to some degree.

Recession in Japan? 3 Key points to remember (again)

The three main points from our prior report on this topic have not changed; however, there are a few more anomalies in the data this time.

Japan's Profitability: "Show Me the Money" Corporate Governance

Japan's Profitability: "Show Me the Money" Corporate Governance

Equity investors should not fret too much about weak macro data, as Japanese companies have been able to overcome such for nearly a decade through rationalization and improved corporate governance.

Point of View: On Moody's Japan Rating Downgrade

Moody's downgrade of Japan to A1 will likely have very little effect on bond yields, the economy or risk-asset psychology. The major reason why is due to its odd premise of predicting too much success of Abenomics, while most market observers are not so optimistic.

Recession in Japan? 3 Key points to remember

Three important things to know about the recently announced Japanese GDP statistics that indicated that the country was in a recession.

Japan’s Key Factor: the Wealth Effect

We have long reported on the role of the wealth effect, as its importance is vastly underestimated by local and foreign investors. The 2Q data for net financial assets shows a QoQ increase to a new historical high.

Official Support for Japan’s “Show Me the Money” Theme?

Update on Japan’s “Show me the Money” corporate governance — the dividend paid by TOPIX continues to rise towards its historic high, but the payout ratio has been stagnant for the past few months, as earnings continue to rally equally well.

Japan's “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance

Improving the number of independent directors and other governance issues are very important in the intermediate term for Japan, but it is crucial for investors to understand that much of the profitability message has already been understood by Japanese corporate for nearly a decade.

Super-Abenomics Key Performance Indicators - September 2014

Japan’s pipeline inflation, which we measure using the recently renamed Producer Price Index’s Finished Consumer Goods for Domestic Demand sub-component continued to be quite depressed in August.

Japan: CY14 GDP Should Exceed Consensus

Japan’s 2Q GDP growth, at -7.1% QoQ SAAR, was far below June’s consensus of -3.1% (and our -2.5% estimate) and we need to reduce our CY14 forecast, but not by much and we remain more optimistic than consensus.

Super-Abenomics Key Performance Indicators - July 2014

Domestically produced goods and imported finished consumer goods both rose mildly MoM. This must be causing much doubt at the BOJ about achieving the 2% Core CPI target.

Japan's Dividend Resurgence: “Show Me the Money”

Last month we described Japan’s “Show me the Money” corporate governance as regards the sharp rise in corporate profit margins to new highs. This theme is paralleled by the trend in dividend payments.

Multi Asset Strategies to Capture Growth with Lower Volatility

The changing shape of China's economy